'Early Warning' to prevent conflicts in Latin America

An early warning and early response system to prevent social conflicts in Latin America and the Caribbean: this is the proposal of a network of researchers and representatives of civil society that attempts to avoid extreme situations, such as in Haiti, and to prevent civil wars such as those that occur in Central America.

Andrés Serbin, president of the “Regional Coordination of Economic and Social Studies” (CRIES), spoke with Comunidad Segura about the system that aims to coordinate, integrate, promote and facilitate the work of civil society in the prevention of conflicts and peace building in the region.

 “Even though Latin America and the Caribbean are less prone to outbreaks of armed conflict than are other regions of the world, social exclusion, ethnic differences and economic inequality all contribute towards the potential appearance of tensions and violent conflicts, both intra and interstate,” Serbin said.

Attending the 3rd International Meeting of the Group of Analysis of International Conflict Prevention (GAPCon = its Spanish acronym), held February 1-2, in Rio de Janeiro, Serbin explained how the system can contribute to the prevention of armed conflicts, act on the causes that bring about structural violence and threaten the institutional stability and governability of States, and promote the peace building.

What motivated the proposal to create an early warning system for conflict prevention in Latin America and the Caribbean?

Even though the region is one of the most peaceful in terms of armed conflicts between States, there are many crises and potential conflicts of a domestic nature, which will explode at some point.  Inequality and social exclusion, along with fragile institutions, create opportunities for certain crises to result in violent conflict. Moreover, there are transnational processes associated to organized crime, arms trafficking; drug trafficking and illegal migrations that sometimes combine to generate conflict situations that must be countered.

What is the concept of conflict adopted by CRIES, and what kind of conflicts may be prevented?

The concept we use is that of violent or armed conflict, whether within domestic borders or between States. In both cases the worst victims are not the States involved, but rather the civilian population, which presses us into acting quickly.  Conflicts will always exist. What we desire is that they do not turn violent or armed and that they be peacefully resolved.

What type of indicators will be considered?

We are working on the indicator’s design. This is a task that will last over a year and a half. In the meantime we are working with indicators used in other early warning experiences, but we are also working to have indicators more in keeping with the reality of Latin America.

What examples inspired the initiative?

There is little tradition in conflict analysis in Latin America, but we based ourselves initially on the South American Peace Commission, which worked during the 1980’s and on the Latin American Research Committee for Peace, that today houses the GAP.  We are also part of a worldwide initiative called Global Partnership for the Prevention of Armed Conflict and, in this respect; we are working on the basis of the European experience.

In our region, the issue of public security is becoming increasingly worrisome. How does the system intend to broach situations of criminality and urban violence?

This theme is not yet within our priorities. It is for civil society, but we still don’t have a strategy to deal with it. We are in the process of discussing the concept of violence and armed conflict. Up to what point is it possible to prevent armed conflict associated with criminality? Which brings up the following question: What can be done in civil society in a situation of violent conflict linked to criminality? One cannot sit at the negotiating table with just anybody. This responsibility falls to the State, which must make use of its power to contain any type of illegal act.

In Brazil there is talk of using the Armed Forces to control crime. What do you think about this?

I cannot express an opinion about Brazil, but I have a standpoint regarding my country. As an Argentinean, I don’t believe the Armed Forces should intervene in internal matters. For this a solid and well organized police force is required.

What concrete results can one expect from this project in relation to peace building in the region?

Our intention is to offer an analysis in ample time to mobilize and motivate governments and intergovernmental organisms so that they act and – through democratic, peaceful and constructive dialogue – prevent new conflicts from arising. In these cases, cooperation is indispensable.

Translated by Steven Harper