The controversy around gun deaths in Brazil

A controversial new study on the use of firearms in homicides in Brazil issued by Brazil’s National Confederation of Municipalities (CNM) has called the attention of  experts on the topic. The study was based on data from Brazil’s Datasus - Sistema Único de Saúde, (that translates loosely as the Central Health System) and it states that the use of firearms in homicides continues to grow, even after Brazil’s gun control law, the Estatuto do Desarmamento, was enacted in 2003.

This runs counter to previous research that noted a drop in gun related homicides in the first years after the enactment of the Estatuto, the national gun law. A study by Brazil’s IPEA, Applied Economics Research Institute (Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada) showed that the number of gun related deaths has been falling since 2003 in the country.

According the Ipea study that used data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health’s SIM (Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade) there were 39,325 deaths caused by firearms in 2003. Since then the number has been shrinking, recorded as 35,076 in 2007, which means a 10.8% reduction. While the studies all use the same data, the CNM study presents a different interpretation of the data and arrives at different conclusions; and there are those who say it also is guided by a different intention.

Table 1 – The number of homicides in Brazil over the past ten years.

According to the CNM study, from 1996 to 2008 there was a 12% growth in the use of firearms in homicides. In 1996, 59% of the 38,894 homicides recorded we caused by guns, while in 2008 homicides caused by guns accounted for 71.3% of the over 48 thousand recorded deaths, or an average 95 firearms related homicides a day.

The CNM study states there these numbers show constant growth, the study further claims the growth in gun deaths was not broken by the enactment of the gun law, the Estatuto, at the end of 2003. “Homicides are being committed with firearms in ever greater frequency in Brazil, having reached seven in ten homicides from 2003 onwards” says the study (translated into English).

According to the CNM study, Brazil’s gun law stipulates a number of measures enacted to control the provision and access to legal gun use in Brazil in order to reduce crime. However, the study further states that there are no effective public policy measures targeting the flow and sales of illegal firearms, nor has there been a significant attempt to control this on the part of (state and federal) governments and the penal system.

“What we see is that Brazil’s gun law, which was so widely hailed, has turned out to be another toothless measure, a law that was able to take a number of legally owned weapons out of circulation but did not even come close to attempt to deal with illegal gun trafficking,” says the study.
Viva Rio’s Gun Control Coordinator, Sociologist Antônio Rangel Bandeira says the CNM disregarded the period that followed the enactment of the Gun Law, from 2003 to 2006, when, according to data from the Datasus, the same source cited in the CNM study, firearms related homicides dropped by 12%.

Table 2 – The homicide rate in Brazil over 10 years (1999 – 2008).

“The positive impact shows that we were going in the right direction, we were raising an awareness of the dangers of using firearms for self-defense in the population and provided an incentive for disarmament. The 2005 referendum asked Brazilians whether they approved outlawing gun sales in national territory, to which they answered “no”, and that result brought with it a wave of skepticism among Brazilians. It helped reinforce the idea that the public authorities are not ‘there’ to defend citizens and set an “everyone fending for himself” tone across the nation. That ended a virtuous cycle of reforms and disarmament, and we are back to our traditional culture of violence,” said Rangel Bandeira.

Additional evidence comes from the fact that there are currently 58 proposals to amend the Estatuto being considered in the Lower House (Câmara Federal), and 24 of these proposals intend to increase the number of professions able to carry guns.
 
According to data from the Brazilian Army’s DFPC, Diretoria de Fiscalização de Produtos Controlados (translates as The Controlled Products Monitoring Authority), there has been a 70% increase in the number of firearms sold in Brazil since the 2005 referendum approved gun sales in Brazil. Still according to the DFPC, 68 thousand guns were sold that year while the number rose to 116.9 thousand in 2009. Prior to the referendum, Army data shows that gun sales had dropped in 89% from 2001 to 2004 due the enactment of the Gun Law.

Former DFPC Subdirector Colonel Achiles Santos Jacinto Filho believes the growth shown in Army data is not very significant and the current trend is for arms sales to stabilize. “The increase has to do with a few factors such as the authorization given to police officers to buy .40 caliber revolvers. Some purchases result from that permission. But the trend is for a gun market stabilization,” said the colonel.

Sou da Paz Institute Director Denis Mizne reserves his own criticism of the CNM study findings. Mizne believes the study comes as a response to a handful of recent studies that showed the positive impact of the Gun Law, such as the one that came out in May 2010 by Sou da Paz, a study by IEPA, Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas Aplicadas (Ipea), another by PUC-Rj and the Mapa da Violência (Violence Map) all of which point to a drop in gun homicides. According to Mizne, there was a surge in gun deaths that ended in 2003, followed by a significant drop thereafter, a drop that also included important urban centers such as São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais.

“A number of different researchers from different institutes point to the same positive findings. This study uses the same sources to say the opposite. Its conclusion does not fit any analysis that delves any deeper in the data. It is simplistic and irresponsible. The interpretation is wrong. The impression we are given is that there was an effort to pick through the data in order to corroborate a specific goal. But the data do not corroborate its findings,” said Mizne, who also noted that the study is not signed nor does it name the head researcher. “It is curious practice, to say the least,” said Mizne.

According to the CNM, study’s goal was to help advance and improve the quality of the discussions of violence, gun trafficking, and public security in Brazil. “We believe that this grave social problem will be reduced if we strengthen the capability of the Brazilian government and the state governments to manage violence by re-structuring public security policy and by strengthening economic development and social policies,” states the CNM study.

Table 3  Ratio (%) of gun use in homicides.

2003 A crucial year

The SIM (Mortality Information System) Sistema de Informação sobre a Mortalidade, provided by the Ministry of Health’s Datasus, recorded 478,369 deaths in the 10 year period from 1998 to 2008. Of these, 332,795 (70%) were committed by firearms. The peak year, after a continuous growth in the yearly number of deaths was 2003, with 51,043 homicides (table 1). From 2003 onwards there was a drop that lasted until 2005. From then onwards the situation started to evolve and go through oscillations, with a second peak in 2006, with a recorded 49,145 homicides.

In 1999, the homicide rate for every 100 thousand inhabitants was 26.2. In 2003, the homicide rate rose to 29.2 for every 100 thousand inhabitants. Preliminary data for 2008 gives us a homicide rate of 25.6, indicating a continuing drop as of 2005.

The CNM study states that the breakneck growth recorded since 2003 was interrupted by series of security policies issued in a few municipalities of the country, such as São Paulo, as well as by security measures based on the new Gun Law.

On the other hand, it states that in the five subsequent years, (2004 to 2008) no other drops were recorded in the national rates, which remained at a very high level, comparable to those of countries at war. “The situation has gone alarmingly out of control having in effect turned into an arms race, with Brazil ranking in first place in terms of gun trafficking in Latin America.

According to the CNM, Brazilian regional profiles are unique and the analysis of (homicide) rates of Brazil as a whole is not representative of the various realities at play. “National rates are pulled down mainly by the São Paulo figures, which have lowered drastically over the last seven years. However, this is not the reality in many other states that show breakneck growth in homicide rates and numbers, with peaks in 2008,” says the study.

Tables 4 and 5: The general homicide rates and the homicide by firearms rate (1999 to 2008).

Westerns in the northeast

Looked at regionally, the CNM study based on the Ministry of Health’s SIM (Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade) shows constant growth in homicides committed with firearms in a group of 13 states – Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, for example – while another group of three states that showed significant drops in the levels of violence: Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Roraima. The municipal ranking is topped by two municipalities that border Paraguay, Guairá and Foz do Iguaçu, both in the state of Paraná.

Crimes are most frequently committed with firearms in the Brazilian Northeast– 73.9% of the cases in 2007 for example. It is followed by the Southeast and Southern regions, who lead over the rest of the country with 73.3% and 73.1% respectively, also for 2007. Alagoas state recorded the highest numbers of deaths caused by firearms: 84.6% of the 1,878 cases in 2008. Rio de Janeiro (81.4%), Bahia (80.1%) and Pernambuco (78,2%) also rank among the leading states in gun deaths.

In state capitals, preliminary data from 2008 puts Salvador (BA) in the lead. Of the total 1,720 homicides, 92.6% were committed with a firearm. Maceió that led in 2007,  dropped to second place with the 92.1%. Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte (MG) and Recife (PE) follow closely with 89.4%, 88.6% and 88%, respectively.

Antonio Rangel Bandeira believes it is not by chance that the Northeast has the worst rates of gun homicides, in his view it shows the cultural aspect of armed violence, a male chauvinist culture that uses guns to resolve problems, combined to the fact the awareness raising campaigns led between 2003 and 2005 on the importance of disarming have since been abandoned.

Still according to Bandeira, people need to be better informed of the risks involved in resorting to guns for self-defense, that guns provide the illusion of safety, and that robbers usually steal the guns kept in the homes for self defense, involuntarily arming criminals – in 2003, according to the Federal Police, 27 thousand firearms were stolen from Brazilian homes.

“The government must resume (gun safety) campaigns to raise the awareness of the public since the population is led to arm itself due a lack of scientific knowledge and as a reaction the overwhelming message on TV, that tells us every day that we should solve our conflicts with guns and physical violence,” said Bandeira.

If we break down the data by gender and age, we see that men age 15 to 24 are the main victims of armed violence. In 2008 for example, 94.2% of males were murdered with guns, contrasting to only 5.7% females.

Better policing, less deaths

According to Rangel Bandeira, individuals arm themselves when they lose faith in the police, and very little has been done to improve the police forces. It is no accident, says Bandeira, wherever there has been (police) reform, there has also been a drop in gun killings.

“In Rio, the UPPs (Pacifying Police Units) are associated with security policy that is preventative, based on investigation and a respect for human rights instead of a policy of confrontation, extermination, and a militarization of the conflict with the drug trade. In São Paulo, the police has been thoroughly trained in the Giraldi Method, designed for an intelligent, careful and progressive use of firearms, which saves lives, and there is also a growing use of weapons that of low lethal force,” said Bandeira.

Still according to Bandeira, it is necessary to train the police so that they refrain from using guns excessively. “Every month we see situations where police officers kill for no reason, and the attitude of the police influences the conduct of regular citizens. It is clear that solution will necessarily involve police reform, since if we cannot count on an honest, efficient and modern police force, criminals will always come out ahead, since there is no strong organized crime without the compliance of the police,” said Rangel Bandeira.

Read Further:

The following are available in Portuguese:

Íntegra do estudo da CNM "Homicídios por Armas de Fogo no Brasil - Taxas e números de vítimas antes e depois da Lei do Desarmamento" (PDF)

Pesquisa do Instituto Sou da Paz Implementação do Estatuto do Desarmamento: do papel para a prática ( PDF)

Mapa da Violência 2010 - Anatomia dos homicídios no Brasil (PDF)

Translated by Lis Horta Moriconi